Will somebody give me mega bux if this is all correct?
Iowa Caucuses:
Republican Party:
1. Mike Huckabee
2. Mitt Romney
3. Rudy Guliani
4. Fred Thompson
5. John McCain
6. Ron Paul
7. Tom Tancredo
8. Duncan Hunter
9. Alan Keyes?
The Aftermath
Huckabee carries momentum in New Hampshire, while Romney is dealt a decent-sized blow by a narrow loss, since he had banked on winning the nomination by winning Iowa and New Hampshire back-to-back. Romney pours everything he has into New Hampshire in hopes of stopping the Huckabee train's momentum, while McCain does the same in hopes of reviving his candidacy in the same place where he did so in 2000. Romney succeeds, eeking out a victory over Huckabee, who New Hampshire financial conservatives are less enamored of than Iowa's evangelicals, while McCain's candidacy is shot dead by a third or fourth place finish, since everyone who would have voted McCain has voted in the Democratic primary for Obama or in the Republican primary for Ron Paul. Rudy Guliani's failure to win Iowa and New Hampshire, his lack of appeal to the Southern conservatives slated to vote next in South Carolina, and the litany of scandals that keep dogging him make his candidacy increasingly unviable with Super Tuesday around the corner. So: Romney's hatchet men work their game in South Carolina a few weeks later to secure him another first place finish over Huckabee in a dirty, dirty competition (think Bush-McCain circa 2000) and by the time Super Tuesday rolls around the party has consolidated around Romney, who they decide is the most viable national candidate of the bunch.
Democratic Party:
1. Barack Obama
2. Joe Biden
3. Hillary Clinton
4. John Edwards
5. Bill Richardson
6. Chris Dodd
7. Dennis Kucinich
8. Mike Gravel
The Aftermath
Joe Biden is the surprise star to rise out of Iowa, and suddenly the dynamics of the race begin to shift. Biden has a motor mouth, but he also comes across as more likeable than Hillary, and actually has the decades of foreign policy that Hillary claims to have. Edwards' candidacy is obviously finished. Clinton's candidacy is in trouble going into New Hampshire, where Obama suddenly shoots into the lead in the polls with Biden gaining fast. New Hampshire is basically a three way matchup beween Obama, Biden and Hillary, and Obama wins in New Hampshire thanks to the support of plenty of disgruntled independents who like his soft-spoken and bipartisan ways. Clinton still has the name recognition and money to compete into Super Tuesday, although her star is slowly disentegrating with the support she once had falling into the Biden camp. Super Tuesday is touch and contested, but Obama beats out Biden to become the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Half of this I'm sure of, half I'm making up as I go along. But I do really think it will Obama-Romney or Obama-Huckabee.
Maybe you should be on the new Fox Business Channel?
ReplyDeletei hear they have some hot anchors.
ReplyDeletemeh, they're no cbs sports.
ReplyDeleteI think your prediction about Biden is wishful thinking unless something goes to hell in Iraq (in a relative sense) between now and the caucuses.
ReplyDeleteAnd Obama's about to get burned on the lack of a universal mandate in his health care plan. Though I'd hope for an Obama win in IA, it's still too close and there's still too much time, not to mention how fail-prone caucus polls are.
Can I be a hot anchor now too?
the biden part is pure fantasy more than wishful thinking, but i just can't see iowa going one-two-three for the clinton-obama-edwards trio. i think one old white dude is gonna sneak in there somewhere.
ReplyDeleteand obama is really bad at selling every single of his policy positions, healthcare's just one more to add to the list. but krugman has been beating up on him for the mandate thing for a while, and it doesn't seem to be gaining traction anywhere in the media besides microdebates between bloggers, a few of whom (yglesias, that dude who was seclabor for clinton) even fall on obama's side. that hardly constitutes a burn in my mind. the dem part of this campaign has been all about metacampaigning which is dumb as shit, but it makes for really easy horserace, "objective" stories while at the same time giving them ample time to beat up on hrc, which they have been dying to do for a while.
Basically the only thing Obama can sell is a rhetoric-laced movement, I agree (I think that's what you mean by metacampaign). Though I'm impressed by his senior staff both nationally and in Iowa (I met with both this summer), the rest of his campaign workers reflect his surprising inability to articulate the specificities of his "progressive vision" outside of policy statements. Perhaps some of it is the campaign's eschewing of memorable and rehearsed soundbytes--that's why everyone thinks Obama does so "bad" in debates.
ReplyDeleteAs for the healthcare issue, I feel as if this is going to snowball into a MSM issue extending beyond Krugman's utopia and the blogosphere, especially as this is the most tangible and specific issue which Hillary can challenge Obama on--she needs another attack line than his meager four years of senatorial experience. Already, Ezra Klein was on Hardball criticizing Obama, and according to my parents (who are in Iowa...you can try asking Greg too), the overall sentiment as well as the local media are just as health care-focused as they are on the war in Iraq. We'll see; a lot can still happen. On December 8, 2003, a Pew Poll put Howard Dean at 29%, Dick Gephardt at 21%, and John Kerry at 18% (Kerry was also only polling at 6% nationally).
Perhaps metacampaigning is the only way to beat Clinton and her excellent policy and communications staffs. To be frank, they're quite good at what they do.